印度煤电不敌可再生能源

中国能源报 General,  International 2018-02-14 09:49:00

印度官方数据显示,2016至2017财年,印度电力供应的80%都来源于煤炭。然而,随着可再生能源发电成本的不断下降,煤电在印度能源结构中的“王者之位”开始受到威胁。


1、燃煤发电热度下降


近年来,可再生能源在印度始终保持良好的发展势头,但燃煤发电却显得愈发“步履维艰”。


智库组织能源经济与金融分析研究所(IEEFA)汇编的数据显示,2016至2017财年,印度可再生能源电力装机增加15.7吉瓦,是2015至2016财年增量的2.5倍,而相同期燃煤发电的净增装机量仅为7.7吉瓦,比此前4个财年的平均增量下降了65%。IEEFA同时预计,2017至2018财年间,印度将新增可再生能源电力装机14吉瓦,而燃煤发电装机的净增量可能只有5.8吉瓦。


据了解,印度官方设定的目标是,到2027年,实现57%的新增电力装机来自非燃煤发电,为此需要每年新增可再生能源电力装机21至22吉瓦。另外,按照印度的国家电力计划草案要求,到2027年,印度的可再生能源电力总装机要达到275吉瓦,同时,将不再新建燃煤电厂。


印度中央电力管理局预计,2026至2027年印度电力需求将达到新的高峰。与此同时,为减少污染,将在2027年前关闭总装机量接近50吉瓦的燃煤电厂求。


IEEFA指出,有鉴于目前的情况,燃煤发电在印度的电力领域已经开始不敌可再生能源。印度官方数据显示,由于电力需求增速低于预期,加上可再生能源发电并网速度超过预期,2016至2017财年间,印度燃煤发电占比从2010年的77.5%下降至56.7%。


IEEFA同时预计,未来10年内,印度每年净增的燃煤电力装机将不超过5吉瓦,另外,每年将有超过2.5吉瓦的老旧燃煤电厂退役。


2、可再生能源成本占优


装机下滑的同时,印度煤电在发电成本方面的优势也已荡然无存。


彭博新能源财经统计数据显示,近两年内,印度可再生能源发电成本平均下降达到50%,并且预计还将持续下降。其中,新建的风能、太阳能发电项目的批发电价,比印度现有燃煤电厂的电价平均低20%。更令人吃惊的是,在新近的竞争性电力拍卖中,印度65%的燃煤电价竟然已经高于新建的可再生能源项目发电价格,部分可再生能源项目的发电成本甚至比采用进口煤炭和LNG的电厂成本要低30%至50%。


另据绿色和平组织比较了印度中央电力管理局2015—2016年燃煤发电的数据和新的可再生能源项目投标发现,至少65%的现有燃煤发电价格要高于新建的太阳能、风能发电,而这些燃煤电厂已经濒临退役。


绿色和平组织指出,如果用太阳能或风能取代上述不经济的燃煤发电,每年将为印度工业和居民节约80亿美元电费;而即使只替代其中的1/3,每年也可减少30亿美元的电力开支。


印度电力部长此前曾表示,为减少排放,印度将在推动可再生能源发展的同时,对现有燃煤电厂实施清洁改造,但不会支持改造那些服役超过25年的老旧电厂。“政府希望尽快淘汰过于老旧的燃煤电厂。”他说,“因为除了环境成本高企,这些老旧燃煤电厂的能源效率也很低下,不适于再继续保留。”


3、电企带头能源转型


《福布斯》网站撰文指出,对印度而言,从煤炭向清洁能源转型益处良多,不仅能够节约数十亿美元的电力成本,并且有利于成千上万人的健康。


根据印度科学与环境中心(CSE)的报告,印度80%的汞污染、60%的空气颗粒污染、45%的二氧化硫排放,以及30%的氮氧化物排放都是由使用煤炭引发的。另据印度健康影响研究所估计,2015年,燃煤发电造成的污染在印度导致了16.9万人过早死亡;预计到2050年,这一数字将上升至120万左右。


CSE建议印度中央电力管理局,在2027年前淘汰48吉瓦的老旧燃煤发电装机,采用更清洁的分布式电力来满足印度的电力需求;同时,还要提高新型清洁煤电厂的装机量。此外,印度的配电公司也应该不再签订长期电力购买协议,转向更为经济的现货市场购买更多可再生能源电力。


IEEFA认为,提供印度总电力供应25%的公共事业公司NTPC可以成为清洁能源转型的关键。


资料显示,NTPC是全球排名前十的煤电企业,旗下拥有44吉瓦燃煤发电产能。据《福布斯》网站报道,2017年,NTPC通过停止进口煤炭降低运营成本,但其燃煤发电价格仍高于太阳能和风能发电。为此,NTPC也在积极发展可再生能源业务。


印度官方数据显示,NTPC目前已经是印度最大的可再生能源电企之一,印度现有的12吉瓦太阳能发电装机中有3.6吉瓦归属该公司。该公司承诺,到2022年太阳能装机要达到10吉瓦,到2032年则要实现36吉瓦的太阳能装机目标。


“NTPC是印度乃至整个东盟地区的新兴可再生能源榜样。”IEEFA澳大利亚-亚洲区能源金融研究主管TimBuckley表示,“随着可再生能源更具成本竞争力,该公司逐渐减少了新建燃煤发电的计划,同时强调技术创新,对新技术持开放态度,并认为技术创新的提速将能帮助企业分担运营风险。”


(Writing by   Editing by Harry Huo)
For any questions, please contact us by inqury@fwenergy.com or +86-351-7219322.

Share this article
Connect with us

Editors Recommendations

1 Weekly China met. coke market analysis and forecast 2018-06-20

Chinese met. coke market saw the eighth price rise of 100 yuan/t in major production areas of Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong provinces, adding up to a total 650 yuan/t increase since late April.

2 China Coal Daily Track (Jun 19) 2018-06-19

Thermal coal Domestic market Some mines in Yulin of Shaanxi were closed amid environmental inspections. In Ordos of Inner Mongolia, those mines that halted production haven't resumed oper

3 Australian govt heartened by rising demand for coal in China, Southeast Asia 2018-06-19

The Australian government has been buoyed by growing interest in thermal coal from Southeast Asian countries, saying the increased demand demonstrated how bright the future was for Australian coal.

4 Coking coal output curbs strengthen in Shanxi as envir inspection tightens 2018-06-19

Miners were asked to reduce coking coal production in a major production city in northern China's Shanxi province when environmental inspection groups came to the province last week. Luli

5 Large Chinese miners sending affordable coal cargoes to Bohai-rim ports 2018-06-19

Trains loaded with "affordable" thermal coal from large Chinese miners are arriving at northern China ports, playing a significant role in stabilizing the overheated market, sources reported.

6 The 8th price rally kicks off in China's coke market on production curbs 2018-06-19

China's domestic coke market is in the process of another price rally of 100 yuan/t, the 8th increase since May, as environmental clear-out strengthened recently and caused lower supply in major produ

7 Expectations diverge on Chinese near-term thermal coal market 2018-06-19

Views were divided on where Chinese thermal coal market would head for in the near future after spot prices went down last week along with large miners' reduction in monthly contract prices.

8 Shaanxi Coal & Chemical Jan-May coal sales up 9pct on yr 2018-06-19

Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group logged a year-on-year increase of 9.63% in coal sales to 59.61 million tonnes in the first five months of 2018, the company said recently. Its coa

9 China's threat to U.S. crude, coal, LNG exports is a tactical masterstroke 2018-06-19

China's threat to impose tariffs on U.S. crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal is possibly the only sign of clear thinking in the increasingly muddled escalating trade dispute with the admin

10 Weekly China coal market news summary (Jun 11 – Jun 15) 2018-06-15

China to launch broader environmental inspections this month China will expand environmental inspections to more cities and regions in a new round of checks from this month to April next yea

Most Read Articles

1 China's major coal miners vow to ensure supply and stabilize prices 2018-06-12

While CHN Energy announced late last week to lower their June contract coal price within the "yellow range" below 600 yuan/t, more major miners have promised to lower prices to ensure adequate supply

2 China to launch broader environmental inspections this month 2018-06-11

China will expand environmental inspections to more cities and regions in a new round of checks from this month to April next year, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) said in a statement on

3 Major Chinese miners work to stabilize thermal coal prices 2018-06-11

Some leading miners in China made price adjustments in response to government's call for stabilizing thermal coal price and supply, sources said. China Energy Investment Cor

4 China's raw coal output rises to a new high in May 2018-06-14

China's raw coal production registered a new high in May since this year, according to official data, as miners churned out the material driven mainly by tempting profit and rallying prices.

5 China proceeds development of coal-to-oil conversion 2018-06-15

China is developing new energy sources by converting coal into diesel. The world's first coal to diesel conversion production line, in China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, produced 8

6 CHN Energy reduces contract coal prices within 600 yuan/t, sources 2018-06-11

China Energy Investment Group, also known as CHN Energy, announced to control its monthly contract prices of thermal coal, media reported late June 8, in a way to cool down the overheated coal market.

7 Weekly China coal market news summary (Jun 11 – Jun 15) 2018-06-15

China to launch broader environmental inspections this month China will expand environmental inspections to more cities and regions in a new round of checks from this month to April next yea

8 China's steel mills utilisation rate falls for 3rd week on environmental checks 2018-06-12

Utilisation rate at steel blast furnaces across China fell for a third consecutive week last week as of June 8, data showed, as environmental inspections continued to weigh on operation at steel mills

9 China's 20 large steel makers launch maintenance to improve environment 2018-06-14

A total 20 Chinese large steel makers have launched maintenances since June 11, said the Ministry of Ecology and Environment days earlier, in a move to strengthen environmental inspections at key poll

10 China plans to create a $78 bln natural gas giant 2018-06-15

Together with its massive push to have more and more residential and industrial customers switch from coal to gas, China is aiming to overhaul the ownership of its huge gas pipeline network.