Indonesia's thermal coal production could fall short of its annual target this year, dented by earlier-than-usual rain season as well as lingering COVID-19 restrictions, said Hendri Tan, marketing director at Adrao Energy, at the Coaltrans Asia webinar on September 22.
Tan expected Indonesia's coal production at 570-580 million tonnes this year, lower than its annual target of 650 million tonnes.
Data from Minerba One Data Indonesia showed the country's coal production hit 429.75 million tonnes from January to September, accounting for 68.8% of the annual target.
Recently, heavy rains and floods have hindered local coal production and transportation in Indonesia. Some coal companies have issued force majeure, making the supply in the seaborne market further tightened. Coupled with high demand from countries like China and India, Indonesian coal prices have jumped dramatically.
Ten noted there seemed to be limited increasing room for coal output in the fourth quarter, given the ongoing adverse weather conditions, and export prices are likely to go up further.
Currently, Indonesian Panamax 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal has been traded at around $90/t FOB, more than doubling the price a year ago.
Official data showed Indonesia's thermal coal exports in July increased only 1.43% year on year to 25.1 million tonnes, adding to the total volume of 182 million tonnes in the first seven months.
(Writing by Alex Guo Editing by Tammy Yang)
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