Fitch Solutions expects global thermal coal consumption to grow by 0.76% year on year in 2023, slowing from a 4.5% rise in 2022.
Global thermal coal production is forecast to increase 2.14% year on year in 2023, compared to a 6.93% growth in 2022, according to a recent report from Fitch.
Newcastle thermal coal prices are expected to remain strong at an average of $280/t in 2023, albeit down from a record $358/t in 2022 caused by tightened supply amid Russia-Ukraine conflicts.
"Our forecast for 2023 implies that prices are likely to get a boost from current levels in the coming months, as energy needs increase in summer and later on in the winter months, but remain significantly below the highs reached in 2022," Fitch said.
Fitch expects thermal coal prices to average $250/t in 2024, $200/t in 2025, $180/t in 2026, and $150/t in 2027.
(Writing by Emma Yang Editing by Tammy Yang)
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