2020 China Coal Cost Study and 2021-2025 Forecast

Cycle of publication: Annual

Date of completion: Dec, 2020

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SUMMARY

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic severely hits the global economy. Despite the rapid recovery of China's coal market, the volatility of coal prices intensifies and uncertainties increase. In September 2020, China has pledged to resolutely abide by the "Paris Agreement", striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutral by 2060. The proportion of coal in China's energy consumption mix will continue to decline in the future. The "14^th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) is a critical period for China to advance carbon emission reduction, lift the proportion of renewable energy and promote the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure as well as coal miners. Coal production is facing a more complicated environment, highlighting the importance of coal cost study.

INTRODUCTION

As approaching the end of 2020, Fenwei is timely releasing “2020 China Coal Cost Study and 2021-2025 Forecast” based on its own mine cost database and extensive field investigations, to analyze main cost influencing factors and forecast the change in 2021-2025, helping our customers get to know the full-process coal cost in terms of extraction, preparation & washing, transportation to ports and cost changing trend.

1 2020 China Coal Cost Analysis

1.1 Cost influencing factors in main producing areas
1.1.1 Influencing factors
 The COVID-19 pandemic
 Coal supply-side reform
 Reforms of state-owned enterprises
 Safety and environmental inspections
1.1.2 2020 changes in main components of raw coal all-in production cost
 Changes of labor wages, raw material and power costs
 Changes of sales, management and financial expenses
1.2 Production and washing cost change in main producing areas by coal type
1.2.1 Thermal coal
1.2.2 Coking coal
1.2.3 PCI coal
1.2.4 Chemical coal
1.3 Coal transport cost change (typical routes)
1.3.1 Roadway
1.3.2 Railway
1.3.3 Waterway
1.4 Coal CFR cost at ports
1.4.1 Thermal coal
1.4.2 Coking coal
1.4.3 PCI coal
1.4.4 Chemical coal
2 2021-2025 China Coal Cost Trend Analysis
2.1 Forecast methodology
2.2 Coal cost influencing factors
2.2.1 Policies - supply-side reform, safety inspections, environmental protection, roadway transport shifting to railways, resources, mining conditions…
2.2.2 2021-2025 changes in main components of raw coal all-in production cost
 Labor, raw material and power costs
 Sales, management and financial expenses
2.3 Commercial coal cost forecast in main producing areas
2.3.1 Thermal coal
2.3.2 Coking coal
2.3.3 PCI coal
2.3.4 Chemical coal
2.4 Coal transport cost forecast (typical routes)
2.4.1 Roadway
2.4.2 Railway
2.4.3 Waterway
2.5 Coal CFR cost at ports
2.5.1 Thermal coal
2.5.2 Coking coal
2.5.3 PCI coal
2.5.4 Chemical coal
3 Conclusions

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