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The increasing global electricity demand will be met by low-emission power sources like wind, solar, and nuclear over the next three years, according to the "Electricity 2024" report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA said low-emission sources are projected to contribute nearly half of the world's power by 2026, up from under 40% in 2023. By early 2025, renewables are expected to surpass coal, accounting for over one-third of electricity generation.
Nuclear power is also set to reach a record high globally, with French output recovering, Japanese power plants coming back online, and new reactors commencing operations in China, India, Korea, and Europe.
Power demand is predicted to rise by an average of 3.4% from 2024 to 2026, with China, India, and Southeast Asia driving around 85% of the growth after growth slightly eased to 2.2% in 2023 due to reduced consumption in advanced economies.
China is expected to lead the surge in demand, despite expectations of slower economic growth and reduced reliance on heavy industry, the IEA said.
The report indicates a structural decline in power sector emissions due to the increasing contribution of renewables and nuclear power. Global emissions from electricity generation are estimated to drop by 2.4% in 2024, with further declines in the following two years.
As electrification expands into various sectors like transportation and residential heating, it would be significant to address fossil fuel consumption to mitigate global carbon emissions.
Electricity's share in the final energy consumption in 2023 increased by 2% from 18% in 2015, but reaching climate goals would require the expedition of electrification in coming years, the IEA said.
While electricity prices generally declined in 2023 compared to 2022, regional variations impacted economic competitiveness.
Europe witnessed a significant decline in wholesale electricity prices in 2023, but they remained two times the pre-COVID-19 levels. In contrast, the United States experienced a 15% price increase compared to 2019.
(Writing by Riley Liang Editing by Harry Huo)
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